Nationwide forecast: 2008 UK house prices to ‘drop to 0%’
November 16, 2007 at 9:40 am | In forecast, housing market, nationwide | Leave a Comment
“House prices recorded another strong year in 2007, underpinned by significant economic momentum, ongoing housing shortages and strong buy-to-let demand. We forecast house price growth of 5-8% in December last year, and with two months left to go it looks like the middle to upper end of this range will be achieved. That being said, momentum is now fading, and a number of factors suggest that house price inflation will drop from its current rate of 9.7% to 0% by this time next year. The main reasons for this more subdued outlook lie on the demand side of the market, where a slowing economy, tighter credit conditions, stretched affordability for first-time buyers and lower house price expectations appear likely to reduce the level of activity. The supply-side of the market will still be characterised by widespread housing shortages, in spite of government targets to increase house building. These shortages will provide some offsetting support to prices amid the weaker demand environment, particularly in the south of the UK.
Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist
Good news , bad news from NAEA
September 17, 2007 at 10:03 pm | In housing market, naea | Leave a CommentThe Good Not So Bad news
According to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA), the number of people looking to purchase a home increased slightly in August with agents reporting a rise of 3.8% with an average of 326 buyers registered on their books in comparison to the 314 recorded in July.
The Bad news Truth
The figures are the lowest reported since 2003, as increasing interest rates and reduced price inflation suggest caution among consumers. According to NAEA president, Stewart Lilly, “the recent introduction of the second phase of HIPs is likely to cause more disruption and in particular prompt a ‘wait and see’ strategy from individuals who are unsure about the full impact of the legislation.”
OK, guess we all have to continue to ‘wait and see’
The Bush initiative may actually save US housing
September 4, 2007 at 7:00 pm | In credit crunch, fha, george bush, housing bubble, housing market, mortgage, odysseus medal, subprime | 3 CommentsSeattle based Jillayne Schlicke, winner of this weeks ‘Odysseus Medal’; highlights in her post what she believes to be the hypocrisy in President Bush’s Homeownership Financing initiative, which is supposedly a ‘common-sense, risk-based pricing structure’ scheduled to begin January 1st 2008.
The main aim of the initiative appears to be a modernization program aimed at the Washington based Federal Housing Administration (FHA), a government agency that provides mortgage insurance to borrowers through a network of private sector lenders.
“In the coming days, the FHA will launch a new program called FHA-Secure. This program will allow American homeowners who have got good credit history but cannot afford their current payments to refinance into FHA-insured mortgages. This means that many families who are struggling now will be able to refinance their loans, meet their monthly payments and keep their homes. In other words, we’re going to start reaching out and making sure people know that this option is available to them so they can stay in their homes” according to the president.
The problem with the above statement is that homeowners with good credit history aren’t usually the ones with sub-prime loans and are therefore less likely to be the ones feeling the effects of the current crises. Furthermore current indications in the prime mortgage market appear stable; but that may change as the credit crunch continues to bite.
Schlicke’s argument also suggests that it takes an enormous amount of effort for a mortgage broker to become FHA-approved, and that it’s really not worth it because of the ’small details’; including net worth requirements, audited financial statements, quality control and compliance issues, plus a rigorous employee payment requirement.
According to Ms Schlicke, for some small to medium sized broker firms, it was:
“a business decision: make more money selling subprime and leave the hassle of originating FHA loans to the banks. “See ya, wouldn’t want to be ya” was the motto when bank [loan officers] left to work for a brokerage firm where all the women and men were hotties, yield spread rapes were encouraged and celebrated and the underwriters gave unconditional loan approvals because the underwriters reported to the sales manager or were threatened with baseball bats.”
Bush also claimed in his statement that if a mortgage broker was ‘cheating somebody’, his administration would ‘find you and hold you to account’, reminiscent of the ‘with us or against us’ war on terror rhetoric, which – if history is our best teacher, well, need I say more?
Needless to say, any Bush initiative at this stage of his presidency will most likely be dismissed as hogwash by most people as its become way too easy to dismiss the man as a buffoon.
Truthfully, at the moment his words appear to be shallow political rhetoric, but if the credit crunch hits the prime mortgage industry, they may prove to be a little deeper than first imagined. And if the US economy recedes because of housing, his words may actually resonate further than we would all like to hear. If it gets to that stage, the program may not appear to be so useless after all.
Comments on Wall Street jitters and UK housing
August 10, 2007 at 4:46 pm | In bank of england, ftse, housing market, subprime, wall street | 24 Comments
Reputable economist Fionnuala Earley of Nationwide Building Society this afternoon released the following statement on the Wall Street selloff and its potential impact on the UK housing sector:
the implications for the UK housing market … could mean that wholesale funding costs will increase and that lenders tighten up their own criteria, particularly those that are very dependent on wholesale funding. However, if the Bank of England see these current developments as a real threat to the City, this is likely to reduce the risk of further increases in interest rates, counteracting some of that effect.” [emphasis added]
Earley’s comments are somewhat contradictory in nature to the tone Mervyn King and the BoE set in his press conference 2 days ago. Paul Tucker, the banks Executive Director for Markets stated that the fundamental pressures in the financial markets – driven mainly by the subprime crises – was isolated.
King said that he doesn’t make any predictions on the housing market, but that he was ’surprised’ by housing’s resilience. He adamantly stated he would not use interest rate policy to bail out ‘unwise lenders’ and claimed to find no real challenge to the global ‘macro-economic outlook’.
However, it appears central banks around the world beg to differ with King’s analysis. In response to the crises, Japan’s central bank injected one trillion yen (£4.2bn) into the Tokyo market, The European Central Bank pumped €61bn (£41bn) into European markets; Bernanke’s Fed added $24bn (£12bn) to the US banking system and the Australian central bank took similar action.
What prompted the interventions from the central banks was that overnight money interest rates shot up this week because cash was scarce. In other words, the price of money rose because it was in short supply.
As of late today, it appeared that the huge injections of funds in the US, Europe and beyond had had the effect of pushing those overnight rates back down again, relieving the pressure on the banking system, for now at least.
[guardian emphasis added]
With the price of money rising, no doubt consumer banks will pass those rising cost onto consumers. Yet King remains silent, even though the FTSE’s crumbling.
Will or will not his actions prove beneficial to UK consumers is the 64 billion dollar question du jour.
OFHEO director comments on Federal Housing Finance Reform Act 2007
May 23, 2007 at 12:21 pm | In housing bubble, housing market, legal, politics | Leave a Comment
“We commend Chairman Frank and Members of the U.S. House of Representatives for passing a balanced bill that will strengthen the nation’s housing finance system by enhancing oversight of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks.
H.R. 1427 gives the new regulator the tools necessary to ensure the safety and soundness of the GSEs so they fulfill their congressionally-established mission, especially affordable housing. It is noteworthy that there was virtually universal agreement by all Members of the need to create a new and stronger regulator for the housing GSEs.
We recognize that a few issues remain and we pledge to continue
working with the House and the Administration on those issues. We are hopeful that the Senate will act quickly on this important legislation.”
JAMES B. LOCKHART, DIRECTOR, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
The Economist covers housing
March 26, 2007 at 6:20 pm | In bubble, housing market, media, subprime | Leave a Comment
Unfortunately, I don’t have an online subscription, but the teaser reads quite lovely …
JUNE is National Homeownership Month in America. National Foreclosure Month would be more apt. Some corners of the mortgage market—notably subprime loans aimed at those with poor credit records—have a nasty case of dry rot.…
Job cuts in America
January 19, 2007 at 3:55 pm | In global economy, housing market, usa | Leave a CommentNews just in that phone giant Motorola is planning 3,500 job cuts as well as Time magazine slashing 250 people. Worrying trend for the overall US economy, consumer spending and the deflating housing market.
Update 01.22.07: Pfizer Cuts 10,000
FTSE falls on property concerns: fundamentals now out of kilter
January 8, 2007 at 7:54 pm | In ftse, housing market | Leave a CommentThe property sector led the London market lower on Monday as investors took profits after a leading broker said share prices had become detached from reality.
The FTSE Real Estate index rose 45 per cent last year as investors piled into the sector ahead of the introduction of tax-efficient real estate investment trusts (Reits).
However, HSBC said share prices and fundamentals were now out of kilter, particularly for the UK’s five biggest property companies, which were trading at a 5 per cent premium to net asset value. Analyst John Fraser-Andrews reckoned these premiums would give way to discounts of 5 to 7 per cent as property values began to slow.
Mr Fraser-Andrews cut his rating on the sector to “underweight”. Land Securities fell 3.2 per cent to £22.10, while British Land lost 2.9 per cent to £16.04. Hammerson dipped 2.5 per cent to £14.97, Liberty Internationalshed 1.5 per cent to £13.45 and Slough Estates eased 1.7 per cent to 770p.
Traders said the sector had also been affected by jitters ahead of the interest rate decision from the Bank of England on Thursday and murmurs that some funds might not be able to own Reit stocks because of taxation issues.
[FT]
Robust economy points to further interest rate rise in the New Year
December 12, 2006 at 5:56 pm | In UK, economy, housing market, research, rics | Leave a Comment
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) issued this assessment report on the UK’s property market this afternoon:
Early November saw one of the most well flagged changes to interest rates since the Bank of England (BoE) became independent. After August’s interest rate rise, which took the markets by surprise, everyone expected interest rates to continue their journey upward. In the statement accompanying the decision the BoE mentioned volatile but rising consumer spending, rising business investment, strong economic growth in UK export markets and the rapid increases in broad money and asset prices as the reasons behind the interest rate hike. With economic conditions still firm, further rate hikes in the New Year are likely.
Commercial property
Occupier demand in the commercial property market expanded into October as output in both the service and industrial sectors continued to firm. Rents in the retail and industrial markets have shown some belated signs of improvement in October, indicating that a rental trough may have now passed. Annual office rents rose 4.6% in the year to October with retail at 3.5% and industrial rents at 1.3%.
Construction
The construction sector continued to boom as we moved into the fourth quarter, with the general picture continuing to be one of robust expansion. The construction industry grew by 0.6% in Q3, pushing the annual growth rate to the highest level in over a year at 1.7%, as the booming residential and commercial property markets weighed more decisively on activity levels than the August interest rate rise.
Residential property
The latest figures from RICS show that house prices rose for a twelfth consecutive month in October, up at the fastest pace since September 2002. The strongest rises in prices are in London and the South of England on the back of a booming City economy. The November rise in interest rates to 5% will help cool the housing market, and at the same time promote economic stability.
RICS – December 12 2006
Kendra Todd – "the world is your backyard!"
November 9, 2006 at 3:14 pm | In celebrity, housing market, interview, investment, kendra todd, usa | Leave a Comment
We’re proud to have played an organizational role in Kendra Todd’s Nubricks podcast interview.
Entrepreneur and Apprentice winner; Kendra opens up about her Apprentice win, working with Trump and where to invest in the US to beat the bubble. Well worth having a listen
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